National Grid expects six minutes of special measures this winter

The risk of the lights going out this winter has fallen back to the same likelihood as before the energy crisis, report finds

•  National Grid expects six minutes of special measures this winter 

The risk of the lights going out this winter has fallen and is almost back to the same likelihood as before the energy crisis, according to a report released today. 

The National Grid only expects there to be around six minutes between the end of October and the end of March where it might have to resort to special measures to keep the grid running smoothly. 

In a report ahead of winter, when colder darker days mean people use more energy, it said that it expects the margin for this winter to be 4.4 gigawatts (GW). 

That measures the average difference between how much electricity wind farms, gas power plants and others can supply and how much households and businesses will want to use. 

It is a margin of 7.4 per cent, and is significantly higher than the 3.7GW that the grid had to play with last year. 

The risk of the lights going out this winter has fallen and is almost back to the same likelihood as before the energy crisis, according to a report released today (Stock Image)

This means that the period when demand might outstrip supply will be just around 0.1 hours, or six minutes, during the five-month period – down from 0.2 hours last winter. 

‘It’s not benign, but compared to last year it is almost going back to around where it was before last winter,’ said Craig Dyke, the National Grid’s Electricity System Operator (ESO)’s head of national control. 

‘So the risks that we talked about last year, the probability of them occurring, are much, much lower.’ 

Meanwhile National Gas, which runs the gas grid, said that it expects gas consumption to be broadly stable this year. 

Homes will use more, but less will be burnt to produce electricity, it said. 

It added that undersea pipelines will not transport as much gas from Britain to Europe as they did last year. 

Last year, cut off from Russian gas, European countries imported gas that had come to the UK by ship or from one of its pipelines from Norway. 

This winter Britain will be likely to need gas imported from the European Union during cold spells to keep heating homes. 

Otherwise it will largely rely on gas imported by ship – so called liquid natural gas (LNG) – or from Norway. 

‘Britain benefits from diverse and flexible sources of gas, supported by pipeline infrastructure that has capacity exceeding anticipated peak demand,’ said Ian Radley, system operations director at National Gas. 

‘Based on our current market view we expect that LNG and GB storage will continue to act as the primary sources of flexible supply to Britain this winter, supplemented by significant UK continental shelf and Norwegian supplies. 

‘Whilst the outlook is generally more favourable than last winter, we remain alert to the risks that are present and will continue to monitor this international market.’ 

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