According to BofA’s Global Research, the U.S. is experiencing the “greatest bond bear market of all time,” as the peak-to-trough loss in 30-year yields has hit a staggering 50%. The sell-off in the U.S. Treasuries has pushed bond prices to a significant discount relative to their 200-day simple moving average, with yields soaring to multi-year highs.
Historically, an oversold Treasury market has been a precursor to substantial volatility in other financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Bank of America’s analysts noted previous instances such as the October 1987 crash, the May 1994 Tequila crisis, and even the March 2021 crypto pop.
Bitcoin in the Crosshairs
The recent oversold conditions in the bond market mildly resemble the environment in early 2021. Following that period, Bitcoin catapulted to record highs above $60,000, only to nosedive back to $30,000 by the end of May. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at a precarious $27,950, and if history repeats itself, we could see some drastic price movements ahead.
But it’s not all gloom. While 30-year bond yields rose above 5% for the first time since 2007, creating jitters among investors, shorter-dated papers like 2-year Treasuries saw a dip in yields and a corresponding inflow. According to the report, equity funds also experienced $3.3 billion of inflows in the most recent week.
Strategists Speak: Bearish Outlook
Despite these mitigating factors, Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett have a rather bearish stance on risk assets. Citing the “price of money” and a regime of “higher-for-longer interest rates,” the bank suggests we could be in for a hard landing. Their advice? Sell the rips, especially in the upper half of the S&P 500’s range, as they believe “the bear market has unfinished business.”
For Bitcoin traders and traditional investors alike, the signals emanating from the U.S. Treasury market are too potent to ignore. With conditions mimicking the run-up to previous volatility spikes, caution is the order of the day. Whether you’re long on Bitcoin or diversifying your portfolio, keep a close eye on those Treasury yields—your portfolio’s stability might just depend on it.
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