Germany: Social Democrats to become more 'far left' says expert
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The 2021 German federal election will take place on September 26, 2021. The members of the 20th Bundestag will be elected, but this election will be one of Germany’s most significant in years as Chancellor Angela Merkel is not running.
Ms Merkel has been Germany’s Chancellor since 2005 and is a member of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
Ms Merkel has been head of the CDU, which is aligned with the centre-right Christian political party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
Currently, the CDU governs in a coalition with the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD).
And under Ms Merkel’s leadership, the CDU has won four straight national election victories.
But according to recent election polls, the SPD is gaining momentum, which may mean negotiations for forming a coalition after this election are much more complicated.
Last week, a Forsa poll for RTL/NTV showed the SPD was leading ahead of the CDU/CSU alliance for the first time in 15 years.
The SPD was up two percentage points compared to the week prior on 23 percent.
The CDU/CSU dropped by a point to 22 percent, while the Greens also dropped a point at 18 percent.
The poll about party preferences was conducted on August 17 to 23 among 2,504 people.
Peter Matuschek, chief political analyst at polling group Forsa, told the FT: “What’s most striking here is the weakness of the CDU, rather than the relative success of the SPD.
“When you look at the numbers, 23 percent for SPD would not have been a great result in previous elections.”
An SPD victory could mean that Germany’s government would be led by the SPD rather than the CDU.
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But the recent polls could also indicate that the only possible coalitions would need three parties to work together rather than the current two, according to Reuters.
The Green and the Free Democrats parties could have significant influence following the outcome of this election.
Other recent polling data has also suggested the SPD are making strides in the run-up to this election.
Politico Poll of Polls data shows the SPD leading with 24 percent as of August 31.
In comparison, the CDU/CSU alliance took 21 percent of the vote in the latest poll, while The Greens party got 17 percent.
Other polling data shows the SPD and CDU/CSU are tied for the most votes.
Statista data for August 26 shows voting intention in Germany was 22 percent for the CDU/CSU.
But the SPD has gained momentum, tying with the CDU/CSU with 22 percent.
Compared to May 21, 2021, the SPD has made significant gains in polling data.
On this date, 24 percent of voting intention was in favour of the CDU/CSU, while 14 percent backed the SPD.
The data shows an eight percent rise for the SPD over three months, while the CDU/CSU support dropped by two percent.
Based on recent polling data, the CDU/CSU will face a significant challenge to hold onto power in September’s election.
In 2017, the CDU/CSU won 32.9 percent of the vote, while the SPD won 20.5 percent.
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