Grayscale vs. SEC: Mathew Sigel Analyzes Showdown

Mathew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, has opened up about the Grayscale situation and the ongoing SEC deadlines. The interview highlighted the SEC’s failure to distinguish between spot and futures-based ETFs, potentially indicating arbitrary treatment under the law.

Sigel supported Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC, suggesting they have a strong case. He also shared his personal opinion that Gary Gensler, the SEC chair, might step down before the end of the year, given the SEC’s recent legal challenges.

In an interview with the Paul Barron Network, he said, “The courts are starting to realize that we’re seeing a winning or losing streak by the SEC. I’m on paper saying that Gary Gensler will be gone before the end of the year; the clock is ticking on that.”

Sigel continued, “But there are many examples of SEC chairs that preferred to step down after embarrassing losses rather than create a further distraction for their president. So I guess this guy’s not long for the seat. In the meantime, he’s created a very challenging legal environment.”

The discussion also touched on the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, with Sigel mentioning that it may occur in the first quarter of the following year. Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg expressed a 75% likelihood of approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in 2023, which Sigel found a bit high from his perspective.

Furthermore, Sigel discussed the prospects of Ethereum ETFs and their expected inflow, suggesting that Bitcoin ETFs might see higher demand initially due to regulatory clarity. However, he noted that Ethereum ETFs might become billion-dollar products in the first three to six months after approval.

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