German Industrial Production Rose for Fifth Month in September

German industrial production rose for a fifth month in September, highlighting how the economy was recovering before the imposition of new virus restrictions.

Output increased 1.6%, less than economists predicted, with gains across all sectors but energy. Rising factory orders reported a day earlier suggest industry could sustain its growth in the months ahead — contrary to services providers, which have have been far worse hit by a partial lockdown.

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann attempted to shore up confidence on Thursday, arguing that the economic fallout from the current lockdown is likely to be “less severe” than in the spring, given containment measures are more targeted. The central bank predicts Germany’s recovery will continue at a “considerably slower” pace in the current quarter.

What Bloomberg Economics Says…

“While the latest restrictions on daily life in Germany will not affect the manufacturing and construction sectors directly, the economy as a whole is likely to shrink in 4Q.”

— Jamie Rush, chief European economist.

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Still, Germany’s economic outlook has darkened with restaurants, bars and leisure facilities closed for the rest of November. The European Commission revised down its forecast for next year, citing the uncertain course of the pandemic as well as structural challenges facing the car industry.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is making aid available worth another 10 billion euros ($12 billion) to help companies through the crisis, and the European Central Bank also signaled that it will deliver more monetary support in December.

— With assistance by Kristian Siedenburg, and Harumi Ichikura

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