With Bitcoin [BTC] riding a massive bullish wave, breaking resistance after resistance, you would be forgiven if you turned a blind eye to the performance of the altcoins. The massive BTC price rally shrank the altcoin market to under 40 percent at one point, but now it looks like the king coin may face stiff market opposition.
According to Binance Research, the analytics wing of the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world, altcoins might be on the verge of a comeback. Earlier in the year, many analysts had claimed that it was “altcoin season,” which withered away with the April 2 ascendance when Bitcoin broke $5,000.
However, with BTC’s price looking to consolidate on the edge of $8,000, altcoins have finally made a move, and their market capitalization [denominated in BTC] edged up by 15.75 percent during the period May 14-May 20. During the period, Bitcoin saw a roller-coaster ride, breaking the $8,000 ceiling twice, following which it dropped below $7,100.
The last time altcoin performance rose by this proportion against the Bitcoin price was from December 23 to 29, where the gain stood at 16.2 percent against the BTC price. During this period, Bitcoin broke $4,000, added another $250 to its price, before falling back down to $3,650.
Since the beginning of April, altcoins have been consistently and severely declining against Bitcoin. Within a period of over a month, BTC price has risen by over 90 percent to its press time price of $7,914, while several altcoins have either slowed down their growth, halted it altogether or are trading in the bearish market.
Further, the total altcoin market cap, as determined by Binance Research “in BTC terms,” has fallen by 34 percent since the price rally began in April. The research further suggested that this Bitcoin market dominance over altcoins is confirmation of a bull-run, based on historical data.
Binance research added,
“Over the past 5 years, this type of divergence has occurred more in bull markets (246 of 300 days).”
The recent Bitcoin pump and corresponding altcoin nosedive resulted in a 40-day positive divergence of BTC price, compared to the altcoin market cap. Previously, two consecutive negative divergences were witnessed in July 2018 and January 2018, respectively.
Binance’s bull-run suggestion is further evidenced by the positive divergences noticed between the two factions. When Bitcoin raced upwards of $19,500, two positive divergences were witnessed, with mere days between them. The first 32-day divergence occurred in October 2017 and then in late December 2017, when the bull-run was at its peak.
Prior to these notable price movements, the largest positive divergences occurred over isolated cases. The first in October 2015, lasted 71 days, when Bitcoin rose above $400. The second positive divergence lasted 89 days.
Many analysts have pointed out that the correlation of the altcoin to the US dollar holds more relevance than the altcoin to its crypto-superior, Bitcoin. However, given historical price movements, the information is telling.
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